The Biggest Myth in Sports Betting
People ask me all the time, what do you consider the ‘real’ number on a particular game? Is it the opening line? The closing line? Well my answer to that is, it depends.
I worked at an offshore sportsbook for 8 years and worked there for over 30 years. During that time I saw everything from big favorites winning to the underdog team winning in every game. It was the 10% edge that made us big money.
In our world we call this the 80% rule. 80% of the bets we placed went AA, AK, AK, depending on the sportsbook. This is where the astute handicapper can gain a 10% edge on Vegas.
If you asked theIONsports handicapper to pick 100 games a year of possible outcomes, he could only pick 80 games… Kind of a Restricting Line, sure, but not really. If you asked theinion sports handicapper to pick 60 games a year, he could pick 40 games, and include the 10% edge we receive from the sportsbook.
And it isn’t just Vegas thatimum bettors rely on a 10% edge to win. All the other sportsbooks, including most of the online ones, would take anywhere from 12 to 15%. Most of these bettors will stick around the ‘ chase’ as long as they see some return on the bet.
The reason people stick around the chase is simple. You win the money in Vegas long term at around 13 to 15 wins for every 100 bets you place. But on a consistent basis, you will certainly make more money by placing fewer bets and accumulating more wins for the same amount of money. The difference is that many of the chasing bettors will end up with at most a 30% to 40% edge and just enough to break even or worse, lose money.
The chasing bettor will understand the math and be aware of the handicapping that forces him into placing the most bets with the smallest advantage. Even so, the bettor may still be at a disadvantage and the difference between the wage advantage and the bet advantage can be significant.
The end result is that if the wage advantage on a bet is big, the bettor may consistently lose money. Each time the bookie builds a 14 point lead with the favorite the bettor must increase his bets to account for the limp in the betting department. When the books come out with the points once again the bettor with the 14 point lead will likely win the bet and not realize the betting department has moved the line to 9.5% or more.
In spite of the mathematics, the vast majority of the bettors fail to make any cash because they place wagers with a 10% or more betting edge.
However you can use a 10% or even 25% or higher edge to your advantage while betting on football. This edge is only available by betting the over/under the line and not betting just a point or two more points to increase your edge.
If you want to bet long term and grow a significant bankroll this is the only way to do it. Football bettors must understand the mathematics and Origins of the Game of Football and Harrington on Cash Games for a better understanding of the Game and how teams and coaches impact the predicted outcome.